Most of my long term predictions had come true and I may not live long enough (but my great grand children would) to see the effects of my present predictions.
One of my predictions in the past was that introducing science in Sinhala medium was a disaster. I was not even 14 years then. The fact that I have to write this piece is an example of that prediction. It is somebody else who should be writing this certainly not me. It should be a bioscientist. But biologists of note are few in this country.
Another prediction was that the introduction of private practice to health sector individuals (while still remaining within the system and having best of both worlds) would make irreparable damage to the system and was a lack of social responsibility of then health planners. I have no objections to anybody doing full time private practice (not part time as it is now). It is bad for both systems. That is my point and I do not want to delve into that anymore.
The present prediction is an ecological one and it is about the planned Coal Power Plant. It is an ecological disaster of the highest (first) order not only to the Norochcholai people but to all Sri-Lankans. I would be brief but someday should write a detail article illustrating the points that I have failed to cover in this short content.
Historical facts about Niagara River, Niagara Falls and the hydroelectric power projects are good eye openers to our energy planners. There is a unique two part hydroelectric generating system on the United States side of the falls. Water is diverted from the river before the falls to make a man-made river to feed a power plant. The second part of the power project at night pumps water from Niagara into a reservoir and held until morning when energy demand rises. The pumps are reversed and become generators as the water from the reservoirs is released. These dual purpose hydroelectric power plants illustrate economy of policies and water management without disrupting the ecological sensitivities. A treaty signed by Canada and the United states allows both countries to generate electricity from the river. It guarantees that half of the normal volume of water is allowed to go over Niagara Falls during the day so that the falls still look spectacular to the visitors. During the night and throughout the winter, the generating stations get to use the three quarters of the river’s volume of water.
Why can’t our planners think in similar lines as regard to the feasibility of similar alterations to the project (upper Kotmale)instead of having the dam right across a natural fall?
It beats me. It is simply because of lack of knowledge and foresight.
Coming back to Coal Power plants I start with some medical points. In 1952 in England heavy smog in London and suburbs caused severe asthma attacks, car accidents due to poor visibility and many deaths (due to respiratory illnesses). All these were related to the air pollution and coal power plants were the major contributor. Very same problem is now evident in major cities of China. The energy demands have increased exponentially world over and the demand is going to go up irrespective of any aggressive planning. It will not improve for a foreseeable future and ad hoc planning in this century would cause irreparable ecological catastrophes. Until population growth is checked, current trends in energy demand would continue and any targets perceived would be unachievable.
When one enters Colombo from Kandy the smog that one sees near Kalaniya power plant is a good example how a small thermo plant is contributing to city pollution. The other contributory factor is the exhaust fumes emitted by all vehicles. When in Kandy if one looks at the sky from Peradeniya the gloom that hangs over the sky in Kandy in the morning is another example how a provincial city is experiencing the same problem in a different magnitude. Incidentally there is an increase of asthma especially in children in Kandy and this is probably related to air pollution (exhaust from vehicles). We in Sri-Lanka and India have the policy of subsidizing the diesel (the polluter) at the expense of petrol. Encouraging pollution is a firm policy of our energy planners and successive governments have encourages this for political reasons but not for economic reasons. Unfortunately the car owners have to pay the penalty for the polluter.
Contrasting style of governance and hypocrisy (also of stupidity) of our planners and experts is self evident. Eco-principles are only on paper and during election campaigns and quickly forgotten thereafter.
One reason we don’t have a Green Party in this country is due to lack of proper scientific training especially in bioscience. Majority of the top level students take up medicine and only a few would take up bioscience with interest We do not have a course in environment science of high (world) quality in any of the universities in Sri-Lanka. By training our children only in Swabaha mediums all successive governments have produced poor quality scientists in this country. The books they are reading are 30 years old. The fact that our banana growers are injecting urea into the stem of the banana flower is the result of this anomaly.
Coming back to the Coal Power, with one monsoon the pollutants from the power plant would be to be blown inwards. The other monsoon will take the pollution to South Indian cities. The monsoons blowing the pollutants all over the world who is responsible for the air pollution worldwide?
Nobody knows.
Who would predict the outcome to our health status?
Nobody except the poor patients with asthma and emphysema would predict.
These patients would witness an increase in the recurrences of their illnesses and debility.
There is lack of concern for the neighbours when it comes to Asian Economic Principles. The Sethusundaram Project is an example when India hurriedly started the project without adequate safeguards (with an election in Sri-Lanka around the corner). Now they cannot make any protest over coal plant since they have not developed mutual trust and economic corporations as seen with Canada and America. This is the problem with Asians neighbours except perhaps China.
The devastating effect on the inland lakes is my primary concern. Nobody can exactly predict how much damage would occur in ten years but one thing is certain it is not going to be any better than what is now. The acid rain would destroy remaining ecological systems especially the rain forest already damaged by felling and tea plantations. The rains would fail and the hydroelectric power also would fail in the long run. The coal power plant is counter productive to the hydroelectric power plants. We will have to sacrifice one sources of power in the long run and sadly it is the ecofriendly hydroelectric power (hydroelectric power is also not full proof ecologically). Even though there will be a slight increase in power generation over short period of time on long term outlook is for the worse. We will never be able to satisfy self sufficiency in power needs with the current rate of population expansion however good our plans may be. Beyond 60% self sufficiency in energy is going to be counter productive in many ways. Whether one is using coal or nuclear energy (both are irreplaceable) the energy production is going to be unsustainable in the long run.
Renewable energy source is the only solution in the long run and why we are not tapping solar power is a mystery?
We should protect the hydroelectric power generation but should not cripple it with short term plans. Lack of enough power sources should not be used as a counter argument to destroy the remaining rain forests. Water is the life line of all Sri-Lankans. Water is the primary resource of our historic living style and power projects are only secondary. If the rains fail everything else in Sri-Lanka will fail whether we have electricity or not.
We cannot eat electricity for our hunger.
The coal power plant is going to have permanent effect on our rain forest and the water reservoirs (tanks).We lived without power for centuries and present craze of uncontrolled modernization is a total madness of our energy economists and strategists. They see power (energy) as a merchandisable commodity and not a service.
The acid rain that falls on the Pollonnaruwa and Anuradhapura will do the same destruction the Sphinx of Egypt suffered in no time. The Gal Vihara and the rocks will erode faster and the Ruwanwali Saya would be covered in black soot. It is a waste of having an Archaeological Department. For what reason they preserve the artifacts if they are going to be destroyed by the mad-made elements produced by the Coal Power Plant.
They would come out with plans to minimize the emissions. The key word is minimizing the pollutants but they can never eliminate them totally and effects are cumulative and they come in small doses. But the effect is the same and destructive. I do not like to go into technical side somebody else should do that for me. But they are only talking at the production time but nothing about transportation and the pollution it causes in transport and storage. The type of coal that is coming is not pure as diamond (is the crystal carbon) and there are many forms of carbon atoms and some of them are very harmful to the lungs. Coastal line and the seaside will not be golden and the houses would be covered in black soot in no time.
I had been living in a mining village and I have seen the coal fires, coal mines and the Coal Power Plants in my own eyes and nothing of this is an exaggeration. I spent three or four times in my bills (for the cost of my heating) as compared to the miners since I could not tolerate the air with the smell of coal. I always have a soft corner for the Yorkshire miners whose children were my patients and they were the nicest of people to befriend.
But I would like to finish with an item that nobody else has gone into detail. The Coal Board that would be formed to import the coal from abroad would be the most corrupt institution even before it is formed. It would be more corrupt than the Paddy Marketing Board. Why do I say so? It is simple.
Successive governments could not run an important board like Paddy Marketing Board and how can they run (in white suits and in air conditioned rooms) a Coal Board?
The point I am going to get at is simple. There will be 50% pilfering of coal before it reaches the target audience. Coal does not come in gunny bags like paddy and neither do they come in sealed containers. They are transported in open wagons and people start pilfering them from every storage site. The gas is expensive and the fire wood is hard to come by the people will realize its fire power (coal) soon and use coal for domestic activities and later on commercial activities. The Poll Kato irons will die a natural death and coal irons will take over. Even our (who ever who are still in service) local blacksmiths will find coal attractive. There will be a side industry providing services to the people and pilfering is going to be a lucrative trade. With marketing wheeler dealing (with open market economic principles in operation) the actual turnover of coal to electricity would be only 30% or less and the Minister in Charge will be an important man. There are also other dark sides of coal which involve officials which I do not intend to go into that in case I am violating professional ethics.
Sri-Lankan-Press Would Dare Publish 